UFC Vegas 86 preview: ‘Hermansson vs. Pyfer’ predictions

BODYBAGZ FIGHT WEEK!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 86 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Feb. 10, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a middleweight main event between Top 15 contender Jack Hermansson and record-breaking knockout artist Joe Pyfer, a five-round headliner with major title implications for early 2024 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 145-pound scrap between featherweight veterans Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili, checkout Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 86 “Prelims” card by clicking here and here. Get all the latest “Hermansson vs. Pyfer” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For the rest of tomorrow night’s UFC Vegas 86 main card predictions click here.

185 lbs.: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer

Jack “The Joker” Hermansson

Record: 23-8 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +210
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’1“ | Reach: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.13 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.69 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 1.66 (29% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Roman Dolidze

Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer

Record: 12-2 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -260
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.64 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.34 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 2.97 (83% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 50%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Abdul Razak Alhassan

Hermansson is a good, but not great, middleweight with solid wrestling and slick submission skills. The 35 year-old Swede made his Octagon debut with a unanimous decision victory over the since-departed Scott Askham back in late 2016 but didn’t make a name for himself until he outworked Ronaldo Souza in the UFC Sunrise headliner a few years later. That felt like a big deal at the time, but we would later learn that “Jacare” was already washed and would go on to lose his next three fights before retiring from competition. As for Hermansson, he struggled to stay consistent across his next seven fights, posting a 3-4 record while losing to Roman Dolidze at UFC Orlando. This is a classic case of a veteran fighter on his way down colliding with a fast-rising combatant on his way up. What happens when they meet in the middle remains to be seen.

“Throughout your career, you’re in different stages, and I feel like I’ve been up there, very, very close a couple times to the absolute top of the division,” Hermansson told UFC.com. “When you lose a fight, you just need to get back in there, and the way to do it is to take another fight, focus on that, and win, and then you can set yourself a new goal. I just need to show everybody that it’s not that easy. I’m one of the best in the division, and it’s not gonna be easy for him to go in there with me.”

Pyfer was a regional terror on the East Coast circuit before earning his shot at UFC superstardom in summer 2020. Unfortunately, an elbow injury on Dana White’s “Contender Series” put his dream on ice and sent “Bodybagz” back to Cage Fury Fighting Championships — where he promptly wiped the floor with middleweight slugger Austin Trotman. That earned a second crack at a “Contender Series” contract and Pyfer made the most of it, putting the hurt on Osman Diaz in July 2022. What followed was a UFC deal, a catchy new slogan by UFC CEO Dana White, and three straight wins — all finishes. Pyfer is not yet ranked at 185 pounds, but a standout performance against Hermansson is likely to seal the deal. I don’t expect that to be a very tall order, based on what we’ve seen.

“I believe in my skills,” Pyfer told UFC.com. “You put me in a boxing match with Jack, I’m gonna mess him up. You put me in kickboxing, I’m gonna mess him up. You put me in wrestling, I’m gonna beat him. My confidence comes from the simple fact that he hasn’t fought anybody that hits like me or has the speed that I think I have over him. I’m tired of people trying to make the narrative about experience. People can take the experience and shove it up his ***. I don’t give a f*** about experience.”

Hermansson has the edge in experience (sorry, Joe) as well as strength of competition. His opening round against Dolidze proved he’s got the right tools when it comes to cage fighting; mixing up his attack with leg kicks and wrestling. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get the job done and “The Joker” historically wilts under the pressure from rampaging bombers, like Thiago Santos and Jared Cannonier. Pyfer is eight years younger than Hermansson and has one-punch knockout power. He was also a standout wrestler in high school and will undoubtedly have the speed advantage come fight night. Unless the aging Swede can play possum and set up a sneaky submission, I think Pyfer is going to run over Hermansson like killer steamrollers run over little league baseball players.

Prediction: Pyfer def. Hermansson by knockout

155 lbs.: Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili

Dan “50k” Ige

Record: 17-7 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 7 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.75 | Striking accuracy: 47%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.07 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 1.66 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 74%
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Bryce Mitchell

Andre “Touchy” Fili

Record: 23-10, 1 NC | Age: 33 | Betting line: +140
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 10 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.58 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.46 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 0.68 (17% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 56%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Lucas Almeida

Dan Ige is one of the “OG” crossovers from Dana White’s “Contender Series,” securing a first-round submission victory over Combate Global veteran Luis Gomez back in summer 2017. The Hawaiian would stumble in his Octagon debut, coughing up a decision to Julio Arce at UFC 220, before stringing together six straight wins, including his split nod over Edson Barboza at UFC Jacksonville in May 2020. Unfortunately, “50k” could not maintain his momentum and would go on to drop five of his next eight; though to be fair, he’s faced some pretty stuff competition along the way, including Calvin Kattar, “The Korean Zombie,” and Movsar Evloev. Ige is a durable, well-rounded fighter who is good at everything and great at nothing, splitting his 10 finishes evenly with five knockouts and five submissions. The Hawaiian has yet to be finished in 24 professional fights and I don’t expect that to change this weekend in Vegas.

“The first thing that came to mind was honestly a little bit of resentment because I really like Fili,” Ige told UFC.com. “But, at the end of the day, they are going to lock that cage and we’re going to fight. It kind of feels like fighting your friend at school. Style-wise I think he’s one of the best. He’s obviously been in the UFC for ten years and, as a fight fan, I’m a fan. I enjoy watching his fights. I was very happy for him when he won in December. I think I tweeted I was happy for him because I know the emotions. I know the rollercoaster of going through winning and losing and climbing and falling.”

Andre Fili is just one year older than Ige but got started much sooner, at least in terms of his UFC career. “Touchy” made his debut as part of the UFC 166 pay-per-view (PPV) card in late 2013 and pounded out Jeremy Larsen in the second round of their “Prelims” affair. That victory, as well as his association with Team Alpha Male, set the bar pretty high for Fili, but he never quite lived up to expectations. In more than a decade of UFC competition, the Californian is just over the .500 mark with an 11-9 record, not including his No Contest opposite Daniel Pineda at UFC Vegas 30 back in June 2021. Fili has 10 knockouts in 23 wins, including his first-round finish over Lucas Almeida at UFC 296 to close out 2023. That said, he has just as many decisions — and has been stopped in five of his 10 losses. I think it’s safe to say that what you see is what you get in terms of a Fili fight; meaning, at age 33 I’m not expecting to see any new wrinkles to his game. If “Touchy” was going to do something remarkable at 145 pounds, he probably would have done it by now.

“I have the utmost respect for [Ige], and it wasn’t a fight I was hunting,” Fili said at the UFC Vegas 86 media day. “I wasn’t calling him out. They presented the fight, and I took it. It’s time to get paid and it’s time to get a big win. It’s time to get these big opportunities rolling and keep this momentum going. I’m incredibly excited. It’s a great opponent, it’s a great card, it’s a great everything, and I’m excited to be a part of it. It’s a great matchup, but I’m just so focused on myself it kind of doesn’t matter who it is. My last fight, I was basically the first fight on the card, now I’m the co-main event. Who cares? A fight’s a fight, and I’m here to win a bunch of money, get a number next to my name, and most of all, just make myself and the people around me proud.”

Fili will have a significant height and reach advantage for this contest though I’m not sure his jab is effective enough for it to matter. Instead, I think this bout comes down to who does the better job of controlling the wrestling. Ige has busted out takedowns to score decision wins over the likes of Luis Gomez and Jordan Griffin, just as Fili blanked Charles Jourdain en route to a sweep on the judges’ scorecards. When push comes to shove, it’s hard to pick against “50k,” who’s had his share of struggles along the way, but also does a better job of staying consistent and finding the win when he needs it most.

Expect a close fight.

Prediction: Ige def. Fili by decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 86 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 86 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 86 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Hermansson vs. Pyfer” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.