Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober full fight preview | UFC Vegas 85

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight veterans Renato Moicano and Drew Dober will go to war this weekend (Sat., Feb. 3, 2024) at UFC Vegas 85 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

In six fights at 155 pounds, Moicano has established himself well as a Lightweight contender. Unfortunately, he also didn’t compete in 2023, slowing most of the momentum gained from his first-round finish over Brad Riddell (watch it). Meanwhile, Dober has been active and mostly successful, winning four of his last five fights and stopping every opponent. That one defeat at the hands of Matt Frevola cost him his ranking (highlights here), but Dober is back in at No. 15 and looking to work up the ladder once again.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:

Renato Moicano

Record: 17-5-1
Key Wins: Brad Riddell (UFC 281), Alexander Hernandez (UFC 271), Jeremy Stephens (UFC on FOX 24), Cub Swanson (UFC 227), Calvin Kattar (UFC 223), Zubair Tukhugov (UFC 198)
Key Losses: Rafael Fiziev (UFC 256), Chan Sung Jung (UFC Fight Night 154), Jose Aldo (UFC Fight Night 144), Brian Ortega (UFC 214), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC 272)
Keys to Victory: Moicano is a genuinely well-rounded martial artist. This is a man with a jiu-jitsu black belt and 10 submission wins who also was able to utterly pick apart Calvin Kattar on the feet — the Brazilian has skills everywhere!

In this bout, the ground is his ocean. Somehow, Dober has developed f—k you power in recent years. The first decade of Dober’s professional career saw him stop just a handful of opponents, but his last EIGHT wins all came via fairly brutal knockouts. As Bobby Green — a historically very durable fighter — learned the hard way, it doesn’t matter if you can jab up Dober if he eventually lands ...

In short, takedowns and back takes are the safest way to a win here. Moicano cannot rush the takedowns, but he holds a significant ground advantage. He would be wise to jab a bit and blast some power kicks to open Dober’s offense up, then it’s time to change levels and drag this fight to the floor.

Drew Dober

Record: 27-12 (1)
Key Wins: Bobby Green (UFC Vegas 66), Terrance McKinney (UFC Vegas 50), Nasrat Haqparast (UFC 246), Alexander Hernandez (UFC Fight Night 171)
Key Losses: Islam Makhachev (UFC 259), Matt Frevola (UFC 288), Beneil Dariush (UFC Fight Night 146), Brad Riddell (UFC 263)
Keys to Victory: It’s genuinely wild how heavy Dober’s hands have become compared to his UFC debut back in 2013. Dober is now throwing tight, compact combinations, and his opponents tend to hit the floor like they’ve been shot!

There are a few keys necessary here for Dober to land his left hand, however. Obviously, he isn’t going to score the knockout from his back. A significant part of avoiding the takedown will come down to refusing to overcommit. Chasing the knockout with big swings is unlikely to pay off, and more likely to see Dober grounded.

Aside from remaining measured, Dober should be looking to hand-fight heavily and occupy Moicano’s lead hand. The jab is the Brazilian’s best weapon on the feet, so if Dober can make good use of his Southpaw stance to smother it, he’s going to force Moicano off his A game.

Bottom Line

Both ranked Lightweights are trying to work their way into the Top 10, and the victor will take a step in the right direction.

Lightweight is a shark tank. Every fighter in the Top 25 or so is really talented. That makes it difficult to gain ground, particularly when a fighter already has a couple losses to athletes ranked above them. Such is the case for both Moicano and Dober, who have historically been bested by Top 10 competition like Rafael Fiziev and Beneil Dariush.

Win streaks are the only way to get another opportunity to really fight up the ladder, and finishes certainly help. Both men won their last bout via stoppage and have a chance to really start building some momentum here, but it’s not going to be a short road to the top for either of these established Lightweights.

At UFC Vegas 85, Renato Moicano and Drew Dober will collide in the co-main event. Which man earns the victory?

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