Mackenzie Dern must reject conventional wisdom after latest brutal, bloody loss | UFC 298

UFC 298 is still ongoing, but it’s already featured a lot of fun fights.

Nobody would label Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera one of those great matches. In fact, it was awful, and that blame can be laid squarely at the feet of Vera. Admittedly, he was faced with a majorly talented prospect and took the fight on short-notice, but still, how many times can a fighter pull guard in 2024 before fans tune out and start scrolling Instagram?

We don’t need to do the Gracie experiment anymore.

Despite my own 14 years of Brazilian jiu-jitsu experience, I hated that fight and that strategy. It was boring to watch and didn’t work at all. Yet, just two fights later, I was desperately begging one fighter to copy Vera’s strategy.

Enter Mackenzie Dern.

Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern was an objectively ridiculous fight. Dern is the same flawed-but-excellent fighter as ever. Her jiu-jitsu is mindbogglingly world-class, yet her wrestling and boxing still leave so much to be desired. For years now, nothing has really changed in that regard. Every once in a while, she’ll crack her opponent with a good punch and give her fans hope of development, but the defensive flaws — high chin, off-balanced footwork, lunging punches — remain ingrained into her game.

Lemos capitalized on these flaws ruthlessly. She kicked apart Dern’s lead leg in the opening two minutes, which forced Dern into sloppy charges forward. Dern can throw with heat, but Lemos is an ace counter puncher, and she hurt Dern badly several times from her back foot. One big connection from Lemos clearly shattered something in Dern’s face, who crumbled to the floor in obvious agony.

It’s a testament to Dern’s toughness that she survived.

At any rate, let’s circle back to the primary point: Dern only found any bit of success when the fight hit the floor. She managed to land one takedown in the first round (a well-timed double along the fence), but otherwise, her wrestling was completely ineffective. Yet, in rounds two and three, Dern was able to find success by landing in bottom position and working her way into top position.

In round two, Dern only landed on bottom by getting knocked down, and she still swept her way into top position! She figured out how to capitalize on her grappling advantage in the third, pulling guard intentionally to reverse Lemos — a skilled and physically strong grappler! — and win the final frame on all three judges’ scorecards.

At this point, years of consistent work have not really elevated the boxing or wrestling skills of Dern. Certainly, she’s never likely to strike at the level of Lemos, Jessica Andrade, Xiaonan Yan, or Marina Rodriguez — the women who have tuned her up.

The fun thing is that she doesn’t have to. She doesn’t have to take them down either. Dern is perhaps the only athlete in modern MMA who can confidently and consistently pull guard then work her way into top position. She’s just that good on the floor!

If she’s able to land sweeps after getting her face broken, why wait that long?

At this point, Dern’s best chance at the elite level is to double down on her grappling. Keep working with Jason Parillo and learning to improve that double leg takedown while in fight camp, but the second things go sideways in the actual fight, Dern has to be jumping guard and playing the skill set that makes her uniquely dangerous.

Dern has to embrace that difference and embrace her jiu-jitsu roots. Otherwise, she’s falling into the trap of trying to be someone else and making her own career more difficult in the process.

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